‘Here’s Who Is Back in the Lead on Eve of Ohio Primary’
It’s been a momentous few days for Bernie Moreno, who is now once more leading in an Emerson College poll when it comes to the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate race in Ohio. Last week the Emerson College poll showed state Sen. Matt Dolan narrowly leading, though now Moreno is leading once more. This time, his lead is larger and outside the margin of error.
Moreno now leads with 38 percent, a 9-point lead over Dolan’s 29 percent. Secretary of State Frank LaRose has dropped down to 12 percent, while 21 percent are still undecided.
When the undecided voters are pushed, the race gets more competitive, with Moreno at 44 percent to Dolan’s 40 percent, just within the margin of error. LaRose gets a slight bump to 16 percent.
For these Republican primary voters, 37 percent say the economy is the top issue, followed by 29 percent who say immigration. Moreno fares well with both of those kinds of voters. For those who say the economy, Moreno enjoys 37 percent support compared to Dolan’s 23 percent. He fares even better over Dolan when it comes to immigration, by 49-22 percent.
Education also plays a relevant role. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, expressed, There is a significant divide on education in the Ohio primary. Dolan leads Moreno among voters with postgraduate degrees, 38% to 24%, while voters whose highest degree is college are more split: 39% support Moreno, 32% Dolan. Voters without a college degree break for Moreno over Dolan, 43% to 24%.
This poll was conducted March 17-18 with 450 likely Republican Primary voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
In the previous week’s poll, Dolan led with 26 percent to Moreno’s 23 percent while 16 percent favored LaRose. A plurality, at 32 percent, were still undecided.
Just before this final poll came out, former and potentially future President Donald Trump held a rally for Moreno in Dayton, Ohio, who also spoke. Trump had already endorsed Moreno last December, praising him as an America-First champion. Trump warned voters against Dolan, referring to him as a weak RINO… who is trying to become the next Mitt Romney.
The rally followed a recent Associated Press article alleging Moreno’s involvement with the Adult Friend Finder site. However, further investigation cast doubts on the geolocation data tied to the account. Law Professor Jonathan Turley highlighted potential legal issues arising from the AP report.
Whoever wins Tuesday’s primary will face vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown in November in what is one of this year’s Toss-Up races.
