Air Force’s loss to UNLV seemed to dash their hopes of playing for a Mountain West championship. However, fate had a different plan in store for them. Later that night, New Mexico pulled off a stunning upset against Fresno State, knocking them out of contention in the conference. This unexpected twist now opens up a path for Air Force to compete for the championship title.
With a current record of 8-3, Air Force will face off against Boise State on Friday. If they secure a victory in this crucial matchup, they will practically guarantee themselves a spot in the championship game on December 2nd.
If UNLV manages to defeat San Jose State this week, they would finish as the regular-season champions with a record of 7-1. This would place Air Force, with a victory against Boise State, as the sole team at 6-2, securing their spot in the championship game.
However, if UNLV loses to San Jose State and Air Force emerges victorious, a three-way tie at 6-2 would occur. In such a scenario, tiebreakers come into play. These tiebreakers start with the teams’ rankings in the College Football Playoff’s Top 25, which is unlikely to be applicable in this case due to the potential loss for UNLV.
The next tiebreaker is the teams’ results against each other in a mini-round-robin format. Unfortunately, even this tiebreaker would result in another three-way tie, as all three teams would have a record of 1-1 against each other.
In such a scenario, the tiebreaker would move on to a team’s average position in four computer rankings. While these rankings have not yet been updated to reflect Saturday’s results, the starting point indicates that San Jose State may face an uphill battle in the computer rankings.
If both Air Force and UNLV suffer defeats, it becomes unclear who would emerge in a similar three-way tie between Boise State, San Jose State, and UNLV. The lack of a mini-round-robin format due to Boise State and UNLV not playing this season further complicates matters. Nevertheless, UNLV would likely have an advantage as the host, but the computer rankings would play a significant role in the decision between Boise State and San Jose State.
The removal of Fresno State from the equation has provided a saving grace for the four contending teams. Fresno State’s strong ranking in the computer rankings made it nearly impossible for the other teams to overtake them. However, New Mexico’s stunning upset has turned the tide, setting the stage for an intense showdown between Air Force and Boise State.
Of course, Air Force’s ambitions of winning their first Mountain West title hinge on their ability to triumph against Boise State. This will be no easy task, given Air Force’s recent string of injuries and the absence of standout linebacker Bo Richter for the first half due to a targeting penalty. On the other hand, the Broncos have shown a resurgence under interim coach Spencer Danielson, as evidenced by their commanding victory over Utah State.
As the regular-season finale approaches, Air Force finds itself with a genuine chance to secure a spot in the championship game, and it appears they won’t need to rely on external help to do so.
