As anxiety about artificial intelligence tools putting workers out of jobs reaches a global fever pitch, new research suggests that the economy isn’t ready for machines to put most humans out of work.
The fresh research finds that the impact of AI on the labor market will likely have a much slower adoption than some had previously feared as the AI revolution continues to dominate headlines. This carries hopeful implications for policymakers currently looking at ways to offset the worst of the labor market impacts linked to the recent rise of AI.
Researchers at MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab sought to quantify the question of not just will AI automate human jobs, but when this could happen. Researchers ended up finding that a vast majority of jobs previously identified as vulnerable to AI are not economically beneficial for employers to automate at this time.
One key finding, for example, is that only about 23% of the wages paid to humans right now for jobs that could potentially be done by AI tools would be cost-effective for employers to replace with machines right now.
While there is a lot of potential for AI to replace tasks, it’s not going to happen immediately, said Neil Thompson, one of the study’s authors and the director of the future tech research project at MIT’s Computer Science and AI Lab. What we’re seeing is that while there is a lot of potential for AI to replace tasks, it’s not going to happen immediately.
The study analyzed the majority of jobs that have been previously identified as exposed to AI, or at risk of being lost to AI, especially in the realm of computer vision. It found that although AI could technically perform these tasks, current economics still favor human workers.
People are the more cost-effective way, and a more economically attractive way, to do work right now, Thompson added, emphasizing the importance of considering the economics of implementing AI systems.
The findings indicate that the disruption caused by AI in the job market will likely be more gradual than abrupt. This gradual shift provides an opportunity for policymakers and employers to prepare for these changes through retraining programs and social safety nets.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently warned that nearly 40% of jobs globally could be affected by the rise of AI, deepening existing inequality. The IMF called for governments to establish measures to counter the impacts of AI’s disruption.
The MIT study provides policymakers with a clearer understanding of the timeline for worker displacement. By quantifying the pace of the adoption of AI in the labor market, policymakers can develop concrete plans for retraining programs and other necessary measures.
The research underscores the need to approach the integration of AI into the workforce with a thoughtful and measured approach, taking into account both the technical capabilities and economic considerations.
As AI continues to advance, this study suggests that the fears of widespread job loss may be mitigated by the economic realities of the current labor market. Ultimately, the future impact of AI on jobs will depend on various factors, including technological advancements, economic conditions, and policy decisions.
