A recent survey conducted by researchers from the Universities of Oxford, Berkeley, and Bonn reveals that AI experts have a less dire outlook on the potential risk of human extinction posed by advanced AI systems. The survey, which included over 2,700 AI experts, found that only around 5% of respondents believed there was a high chance of human extinction from AI. This contrasts with a poll conducted in August 2023, where 61% of Americans viewed AI as a threat to humanity. Industry leaders have also expressed concerns about the risk of human extinction from AI and believe that mitigating this risk should be a global priority.
Regarding AI capabilities, many survey respondents predicted significant progress within the next 10 years. They expect AI to achieve major creative milestones, such as coding an entire payment website from scratch or creating songs that are indistinguishable from today’s hits. However, experts foresee longer timelines for challenges like mathematical theorem proving. The survey also revealed that the possibility of High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) becoming a reality has been pulled 13 years closer, with a 50% probability of success predicted by 2047. Similarly, the Full Automation of Labor (FAOL) horizon has shifted to 2116, which is 48 years earlier than previously anticipated.
These survey results provide valuable insights into the perceptions and expectations of AI experts regarding the potential impact of advanced AI systems on humanity. While concerns about the risks associated with AI exist, it is noteworthy that experts see a lower likelihood of human extinction compared to public opinion. The survey highlights the need for a balanced assessment of the benefits and risks of AI technology.
In an increasingly AI-driven world, it is crucial to consider the interests and needs of the general public. The survey results underscore the importance of transparent communication and public engagement to address misconceptions about AI. By sharing expert opinions and insights, it becomes possible to enhance public understanding and facilitate informed decision-making.
It is worth noting that the survey aimed to capture the perspectives of a diverse range of AI experts from different academic and professional backgrounds. Their predictions regarding AI capabilities and timelines offer glimpses into the potential trajectory of technological advancements. These insights can help guide policymakers, researchers, and industry leaders in developing strategies to maximize the benefits of AI while minimizing potential risks.
While the survey results provide a glimpse into the opinions of AI experts, it is crucial to remember that the future remains uncertain. Predictions about the arrival of High-Level Machine Intelligence and Full Automation of Labor are speculative and subject to a range of factors. However, these insights provide valuable food for thought as society continues to navigate the ever-evolving landscape of AI technology.
In conclusion, the survey of AI experts reveals a less dire outlook on the risk of human extinction posed by advanced AI systems. Expert opinions contrast with the concerns expressed by the public and underscore the need for balanced assessments of AI benefits and risks. The survey also provides insights into the timeframe of potential AI achievements and calls for transparent communication to enhance public understanding. As AI continues to shape our world, ongoing dialogue between experts, policymakers, and the public will be essential to navigate this transformative technological landscape.
