AbbVie, a leading U.S. drugmaker, has adjusted its 2023 sales projection for its flagship arthritis drug Humira. Despite facing new competition, the company expects a smaller decline in sales due to favorable positions on insurance drug coverage lists, which help it reach patients in the United States.
Previously, AbbVie estimated that Humira sales would fall by 37%, but it has now revised that projection to a 35% decline. The adjustment comes as AbbVie reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings. The company’s annual profit forecast has been raised to $10.90 to $11.10 per share.
Investors have been closely monitoring Humira’s sales trajectory following the entry of eight biosimilars in the U.S. market. Biosimilars are close copies of the original drug. However, AbbVie’s agreements with pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) have secured Humira’s placement on insurance coverage lists, giving it an advantage. CVS Health’s Caremark, Cigna Group’s Express Scripts, and UnitedHealth Group’s Optum RX have all chosen to cover Humira alongside a few of the new biosimilars in 2023.
The negotiation of prices between PBMs and drugmakers is crucial. AbbVie’s Chief Commercial Officer, Jeffrey Stewart, expressed confidence that Humira access will remain significant in 2024 due to these dynamics.
Although Humira’s global sales for the second quarter decreased by 25.2% to $4.01 billion, the figures surpassed Wall Street estimates. Analysts had predicted sales of $3.94 billion. One reason for this unexpected result is that Amgen’s Amjevita, the only Humira biosimilar available in the U.S. during the second quarter, was unable to capture as many Humira patients as anticipated since its launch in January.
AbbVie’s pricing strategy also played a role. While there are now seven other drugmakers with Humira biosimilars in the market, three of them priced their products within 5% to 7% of AbbVie’s list price. Two others offered an 85% discount, and the remaining two opted for a combination of both types of prices.
To compensate for the projected decline in Humira sales, AbbVie is relying on its newer immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. Skyrizi’s global sales totaled $1.88 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.82 billion. Similarly, Rinvoq sales reached $918 million, exceeding estimates of $897 million.
During an investor call, AbbVie raised its 2023 sales forecast for Skyrizi by an additional $200 million to $7.6 billion. The company also increased its forecast for neuroscience drug sales, projecting $7.7 billion in 2023.
AbbVie’s global sales of Botox for cosmetic use amounted to $685 million, a slight decrease of 1.4%, but still higher than analysts’ estimate of $683 million.
Looking ahead, AbbVie anticipates high single-digit growth for international aesthetics in 2023. Excluding items, the company posted a profit of $2.91 per share, surpassing the average analyst estimate of $2.81.
AbbVie’s ability to navigate the evolving market and maintain its sales despite competition and the entry of biosimilars demonstrates its resilience. The company’s focus on newer drugs like Skyrizi and Rinvoq is expected to help offset the anticipated decline in Humira sales.
In conclusion, while Humira faces challenges from biosimilars, AbbVie’s strong positioning on insurance drug coverage lists, the moderate decline in sales, and the success of its newer treatments bode well for the company’s future performance.
