Surge in African Military Coups: Rising Public Support and Societal Shifts
In recent years, Africa has experienced a surge in military coups, with a notable rise in public support and societal shifts towards embracing authoritarian rule. This trend is raising concerns among governments in the region. While mismanagement, corruption, economic crises, and state weaknesses have been identified as common factors propelling military takeovers globally, Africa exhibits two distinct characteristics that set it apart – the growing public support for military rule and a societal inclination towards authoritarian forms of government.
According to recent survey data from Afrobarometer, support for military rule as a form of government in Africa has doubled from 11.6% to 22.3% between 2000 and the present. Out of the 37 countries analyzed, only 11 showed a decline in support for military dictatorship, while the remaining 26 saw an increase. Alarmingly, support for democracy has also declined in the last year, with only four countries demonstrating a reduced endorsement of military rule since 2000.
Interestingly, the study found that support for military rule was higher in partly free and not free countries, as categorized by the Freedom House index. However, there were exceptions to this trend. In South Africa, a constitutional democracy, one in three South Africans expressed support for military rule. Similarly, in democratic Namibia, one-fourth of the population favored military intervention.
The research suggests that dissatisfaction with governments in sub-Saharan Africa arises from various factors such as security threats, humanitarian crises, and a lack of prospects. Many citizens feel disillusioned by their leaders and view elections as insufficient in effecting meaningful change. Opposition parties also struggle to gain favorability. Consequently, embracing military intervention appears to be a solution for these individuals, with society openly legitimizing the military’s involvement in politics.
If politicians are perceived as indifferent to the needs of the people, this may further incentivize the military to overthrow civilian governments, perpetuating a cycle of coups. Unless political, military, and economic solutions are found, military takeovers are likely to increase in the region, perpetuating the cycle of public support and societal acceptance. The recent coup in Niger may not be the last unless these underlying issues are addressed.
The rise in military coups in Africa is a cause for concern, as it undermines the progress made in democratization on the continent. Governments must prioritize addressing the root causes behind public frustration and disillusionment, including security threats, economic challenges, and governance issues. Promoting transparency, good governance, and inclusive decision-making processes can help restore public trust and reduce the attractiveness of military intervention. Without concerted efforts to address these underlying societal shifts, Africa may continue to experience a surge in military coups, with significant implications for stability, development, and democracy.
