President Joe Biden finds himself facing a political conundrum as he navigates the delicate task of responding to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial judicial overhaul. Despite the longstanding alliance between the United States and Israel, Biden has limited options in influencing Netanyahu’s decisions.
Biden and his top aides have made direct appeals to Netanyahu in an effort to dissuade him from pushing through new restrictions on the Israeli Supreme Court. However, these appeals have been unsuccessful, leading to criticism both in the United States and through mass protests in Israel. Critics argue that these measures are anti-democratic.
The White House, in a brief statement, expressed its disappointment with the Israeli parliament’s vote and urged the parties involved to work towards a consensus. However, the statement did not hint at any practical consequences for Netanyahu’s government. This underscores the limits of Biden’s ability to rein in the right-wing leader.
The challenge for Biden lies in pressuring Netanyahu to halt the erosion of the judicial system while maintaining the strength of US-Israeli relations. Biden, who has long professed his support for Israel, faces the delicate balancing act of avoiding an open confrontation with Israeli leaders, which could have significant political costs.
One key factor weighing on Biden’s decision-making is the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Democrats are aware that any action perceived as anti-Israel could provide Republicans with ammunition to label them as such, potentially alienating independent voters and some Jewish donors. Republicans, including presidential hopefuls, have already accused Biden of meddling in Israel’s domestic affairs, appealing in part to a substantial Christian evangelical following that strongly supports Israel.
Another factor restricting Biden’s leverage is his commitment to maintaining the annual billions of dollars in military aid to Israel. This commitment limits his ability to impose significant consequences on Netanyahu’s government. Additionally, Washington has its own security interests in ensuring Israel’s military edge against Iran, making it hesitant to take actions that could compromise this goal.
While Biden might lack significant leverage, there are still some pressure points available to him. For instance, the Biden administration is working towards normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a goal that Netanyahu has sought but with little progress. The administration has also announced a review period to determine whether Israelis will be granted visa-free travel to the United States, a decision that could be influenced by diplomatic strains.
Tensions between Biden and Netanyahu have been apparent, particularly compared to the close relationship between Netanyahu and former President Donald Trump. Biden’s frosty relations with Netanyahu stretch back to his time as vice president under President Barack Obama. As Obama’s vice president, Biden witnessed firsthand the strained interactions between the US and Israel over the Iran nuclear deal and Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.
To navigate this delicate situation, Biden is likely to avoid a confrontational response that could further strain his relationship with Netanyahu. Biden is not Obama, and he understands the potential consequences of challenging Israel’s leadership. These considerations, along with the absence of a senior US diplomat on the ground in Israel, suggest that Biden will proceed cautiously, closely monitoring Netanyahu’s commitment to seeking a consensus on judicial changes with the opposition by the end of November.
In conclusion, President Biden faces a difficult dilemma as he grapples with Israel’s divisive judicial overhaul. While he seeks to pressure Netanyahu to preserve the independence of the judiciary, he must also manage the delicate task of maintaining strong US-Israeli relations and avoiding an open confrontation with Israeli leaders. The upcoming 2024 presidential election and the complexities of the US-Israel alliance further complicate Biden’s decision-making. As he weighs his options, Biden will work to strike a balance that upholds US interests while minimizing political costs.
