Conservatives Face Setbacks in By-Elections, Uxbridge Outcome Raises Concerns Over Net Zero Policies
Thursday’s by-elections delivered disappointing results for the Conservative Party, particularly for Chancellor Rishi Sunak. The swing to Labour in Selby and Ainsty was a substantial 28 percent, while the Lib Dems saw a 24 percent swing in Somerset and Frome. Selby’s election result set a record for the size of majority overturned by Labour in a by-election, surpassing the gap they overcame in Mid Staffordshire over 30 years ago.
Despite these setbacks, the Conservatives managed to retain Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, although the 6.7 percent swing to Labour was a cause for concern. The victory in Uxbridge was largely attributed to the opposition against the proposed expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) by Labour’s London Mayor, Sadiq Khan. The ULEZ expansion, due to come into force in Uxbridge and outer London on August 29, became the focal point of the by-election campaign. Steve Tuckwell, the winning Conservative candidate, acknowledged this in his victory speech. Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner also acknowledged ULEZ as the major issue.
These by-election results have raised significant doubts about the Conservative Party’s chances of winning the next general election under Sunak’s leadership. Despite being expected to bring stability to the government after the dramatic tenures of Johnson and Truss, Sunak has been unable to inspire confidence and has instead led the party towards electoral annihilation. His personal approval rating is nearly twice as negative as Keir Starmer’s, leader of the Labour Party, and the Conservative Party’s standing is far behind where it was at the end of Johnson’s premiership.
However, the outcome in Uxbridge may come as a boost to the Conservatives’ prospects in the upcoming London Mayoral elections. The introduction of a first-past-the-post voting system, replacing the second-preference voting system from 2021, favors the Conservatives. Sadiq Khan, the current London Mayor, should be concerned as his lead over the Conservative candidate Shaun Bailey on first-preference votes was less than five percentage points in the previous election. Susan Hall, the Conservative mayoral candidate, must be pleased to hear that Khan remains determined to go ahead with the ULEZ expansion, despite its unpopularity highlighted by the by-election result.
The ULEZ expansion has been met with strong opposition, and its implementation could potentially cost Khan his job. Critics argue that the expansion will do little to reduce pollution levels but will primarily serve as a tool to generate revenue for Transport for London. The unpopularity of the planned ULEZ expansion is such that Transport for London has refrained from disclosing the location of ULEZ cameras to prevent them from being vandalized, as over 200 have already been damaged.
The Uxbridge result should serve as a warning to politicians who want to promote Net Zero-inspired anti-car policies. Residents are increasingly aware that these policies are often an environmental smokescreen for imposing additional taxes on motorists. The public is beginning to realize that the various anti-car measures, such as congestion charges, low emission zones, low traffic neighborhoods, and 15-minute cities, are direct consequences of the push towards achieving Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050. As bans on the sale of new internal-combustion-engine cars in 2030 and on new domestic gas boiler installations in 2035 draw closer, more people are becoming aware that the policies required to achieve Net Zero will significantly diminish their quality of life. Consequently, they are more willing to vote against politicians who attempt to implement such measures. It may not be long before politicians themselves realize that their careers could be at stake for pursuing the Net Zero agenda.
The recent outcomes in Uxbridge, Cambridge, and Canterbury demonstrate that voters reject Net Zero-inspired measures and are increasingly skeptical of the environmental claims made in their favor. They understand that these policies are merely ways to introduce additional taxes and restrictions on car usage. The public is becoming aware that policies aimed at achieving Net Zero will have a significant impact on their daily lives. As a result, they are prepared to vote against those who implement such measures. This emerging sentiment poses a challenge to politicians who need to strike a delicate balance between addressing environmental concerns and respecting the wishes of the electorate.
In conclusion, the results of Thursday’s by-elections have raised concerns for the Conservative Party, particularly facing the swing towards Labour. The successful retention of the Uxbridge seat amid opposition to the ULEZ expansion provides some respite, but the wider implications of these outcomes suggest that the Conservatives may struggle to secure victory in the next general election with Sunak as their leader. Nevertheless, the Uxbridge result bodes well for the Conservatives’ chances in the upcoming London Mayoral elections. The future of Net Zero-inspired anti-car policies remains uncertain, as voters become increasingly skeptical of their feasibility and impact on their lives.
