Mining expansions will be essential to achieve a net-zero economy, according to the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), a London-based net zero coalition. The ETC’s recent report on Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition emphasized that while there may not be a fundamental shortage of raw materials for the transition, mining expansions will be necessary to increase supply. The report highlighted potential supply gaps and increased prices for key materials such as cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, neodymium, and nickel. However, it also suggested that advancements in technology, improved materials efficiency, and increased recycling efforts could help close these supply gaps by 2030.
The ETC report stated that actions to improve materials and technology efficiency will have the most significant short-term impact on reducing material intensity, particularly for battery materials. Recycling efforts will have a more mid-to-long term effect. However, the report also noted that accelerating recycling alone would not be enough to close supply gaps by 2030 due to potential over-capacity.
To address these challenges, the ETC called for swift and concerted action from policymakers, miners, and investors. The report recommended creating certainty of future demand, accelerating mine development, increasing capital expenditure, and enhancing mining productivity. The ETC emphasized the importance of introducing higher efficiency in solar, batteries, and electrolysers to reduce material intensity for copper, rare earths, and silicon. It also highlighted the need for a faster transition to lithium-iron-phosphate and nickel-free batteries, as well as improvements in battery energy densities. The report suggested that a shift to sodium-ion batteries after 2030 could significantly reduce lithium demand.
The report presented four scenarios, including Baseline Decarbonisation, High Efficiency and Innovation, High Recycling, and Maximum Efficiency and Recycling. It concluded that even under the Baseline Decarbonisation scenario, there is no long-term resource adequacy problem.
While the report recognized the importance of recycling, it noted that it would be less significant for materials like copper, graphite, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, as the number of electric vehicles reaching the end-of-life stage by 2030 would still be relatively low. The report estimated supply gaps of around 33% for lithium, 15% for nickel, 40% for cobalt, 10% for copper, 45% for graphite anodes, and 28% for neodymium by 2030.
In its vision for a near-total decarbonization of the global vehicle fleet, the report stated that more than 1.5 billion electric vehicles and around 200 million electric trucks and buses would be needed by 2050. This would result in a total battery capacity requirement of up to 150TWh. Argus, a leading provider of market intelligence, forecasts that global electric vehicle sales will exceed 40 million units per year by 2030, a significant increase from the 6.8 million units sold in 2021.
Addressing the potential role of hydrogen, the ETC chairman, Adair Turner, expressed confidence in the future of electric vehicles. He stated that he expects electric cars with a range of 600 kilometers to be prevalent on the roads within the next five to ten years, while passenger hydrogen cars are unlikely to gain significant traction.
The ETC report also highlighted the environmental impact associated with material extraction, including deforestation, waste pollution, and exacerbation of water stress. It called for caution and high environmental standards in any future deep-sea mining activities. The topic of deep-sea mining has garnered increased attention recently, with climate groups and nations advocating for a moratorium.
The ETC report emphasized the transition from consumable fossil fuels to durable metals in a low-carbon, highly electrified energy system. It stressed that these metals should be reused and recycled at the end of their life cycle.
In conclusion, the Energy Transitions Commission’s report underscores the need for mining expansions to support the transition to a net-zero economy. While there may not be a fundamental shortage of raw materials, increased mining efforts will be necessary to meet growing demands. The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements, improved materials efficiency, and recycling efforts. Concerted action from policymakers, miners, and investors is crucial to ensure future demand, accelerate mine development, and increase mining productivity. By following these recommendations, it is possible to bridge supply gaps and achieve a more sustainable energy future.
