Title: Diabetes Cases Expected to Surge to 1.3 Billion in the Next 30 Years, Global Study Finds
According to a recent study funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the number of people living with diabetes is projected to more than double, reaching 1.3 billion worldwide in the next three decades. This alarming trend is expected to impact every country, making diabetes a global health concern of unprecedented magnitude.
Currently, over half a billion people are already living with diabetes, affecting individuals of all ages and genders in every corner of the world. The International Diabetes Federation Atlas 2021 estimates that approximately 3.6 million Nigerians are currently struggling with the disease.
The study reveals that diabetes has become one of the top ten leading causes of death and disability globally, with a current prevalence rate of 6.1 percent. By 2050, this rate is predicted to increase to a staggering 16.8 percent in North Africa and the Middle East, while Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to see an increase to 11.3 percent.
Elderly populations, particularly those aged 65 and above, are significantly affected by diabetes worldwide. In fact, the prevalence rate for this age group stands at more than 20 percent globally, with individuals aged 75 to 79 recording the highest rate of 24.4 percent. The super-region of North Africa and the Middle East reports the highest rate in this age group at 39.4 percent, while Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia have the lowest rate at 19.8 percent.
Among the diabetes cases analyzed, 96 percent were classified as type 2 diabetes (T2D). The study found that several risk factors are associated with T2D, with a high body mass index (BMI) being the primary risk factor, accounting for 52.2 percent of T2D disability and mortality. Other factors include dietary risks, environmental or occupational risks, tobacco use, low physical activity, and alcohol consumption.
Lead author Liane Ong, a research scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, highlights the complexity of preventing and controlling diabetes due to multiple factors. Ong emphasizes that genetics, logistics, social circumstances, and financial barriers within a country’s healthcare system, especially in low- and middle-income countries, contribute to the challenges faced.
The study’s second author, Lauryn Stafford, a post-bachelor fellow at IHME, emphasizes the need to address the disparities and inequities that impact individuals’ access to screening, treatment, and healthcare services worldwide. Stafford calls for a comprehensive understanding of how diabetes affects populations at a granular level to devise effective prevention and control strategies.
Through the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, researchers examined the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality of diabetes across 204 countries and territories, with a focus on age and gender between 1990 and 2021. They also projected diabetes prevalence for the year 2050. Additionally, the study quantified the proportion of T2D burden associated with 16 risk factors.
This study sheds light on the urgent need for global action to tackle the growing diabetes epidemic. With the number of diabetes cases expected to soar to 1.3 billion in the next three decades, healthcare systems worldwide must address the complexities and challenges associated with this disease. By adopting a comprehensive approach that addresses genetic factors, social disparities, and healthcare barriers, countries can work towards preventing and managing diabetes effectively, creating a healthier future for all.
Disclaimer: The news article above is based on recent research findings and is intended to inform readers about the current state of diabetes globally. It does not reflect any personal opinions or additional messages.
