LONDON — The U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faced a devastating blow on Thursday as the Labour opposition won two crucial by-elections, further denting the ruling Conservative Party’s confidence. Labour’s momentum shows no signs of slowing down, leaving Sunak and his party in a vulnerable position.
In Wellingborough, Northamptonshire, the House of Commons data revealed a significant 28.5% vote swing in favor of Labour, marking the party’s second-largest swing since 1945. Labour secured 45.9% of the vote, overshadowing the Conservative Party’s 24.6% result. The by-election was initiated after allegations of serial bullying and sexually inappropriate behavior forced veteran Conservative MP Peter Bone out of parliament. Bone, who denied the claims, was replaced by Helen Harrison, his partner, as the Conservative candidate. With this victory, Labour has reclaimed the seat for the first time since 2001. Gen Kitchen, the winning candidate, described the result as a stunning victory for the Labour Party and a message from Northamptonshire to Downing Street.
The second by-election in Kingswood, South Gloucestershire saw another triumph for Labour. They were able to overthrow the Conservative Party’s majority of 11,220, winning with a 16.4% vote swing. The seat became vacant when former Conservative MP Chris Skidmore resigned in January, protesting against the Conservative Party’s plan to issue new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea. Damien Egan, the newly elected Labour MP for Kingswood, highlighted that there is still much work to do and pledged to work to give Kingswood its future back.
Thursday’s double defeat adds to a series of unfavorable by-election results for the ruling party. Labour has managed to overturn significant Conservative majorities in previous by-elections, notably in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth. The Conservatives have also lost seats to Labour in Selby and Ainsty and to the Liberal Democrats in Somerton and Frome.
Labour Leader Keir Starmer emphasized that these by-elections reflect the country’s yearning for change, stating, the country is crying out for change, but there is more work to do. In an interview with the BBC, Starmer expressed his satisfaction with winning over Conservative voters who had not previously supported Labour, signaling a widening appeal for the party.
Recent polling data indicates Labour’s consistent lead over the Conservatives of more than 20 points. With a general election required no later than January 2025, these results have raised speculations of a sizeable election victory for the Labour Party, potentially spelling further trouble for the ruling party.
Alongside these electoral defeats, the U.K. economy has slipped into recession in the latter half of 2023, with a mere 0.1% growth throughout the year. As the country grapples with the lingering cost of living crisis, inflation continues to strain household finances.
Professor Robert Ford of the University of Manchester suggests that these election results, combined with previous by-election successes, position the Labour Party for a notable victory in the general election. He believes the results indicate a promising trajectory for Labour.
The continuous series of by-election losses for the Conservatives in a single parliamentary term now stands unmatched since the 1960s, further showcasing the electoral pressure mounting for the ruling party.
As the Conservatives grapple with these defeats and the challenges posed by economic troubles, all eyes remain on the Labour Party and their aspirations for change. With public sentiment favoring the opposition party, the political landscape of the U.K. appears poised for a major shift come the next general election.
