Quantum computing, a technology often regarded as esoteric and unapproachable, may finally move past its hype in 2024. As mainstream audiences become more intrigued by the potential of this sophisticated technology, the U.S. Congress is expected to re-authorize the National Quantum Initiative, setting aside over $3 billion for quantum research over the next five years. The focus of this initiative will be on investing in near-term quantum sciences applications, aiming to show the need for this technology to be deployed across economic sectors.
Initiatives by governments in the UK, Canada, and the European Union are also driving short-term progress in the field of quantum computing, with the motivation to stay ahead in the quantum race surpassing that of the AI arms race. However, quantum enthusiasts have been criticized for overhyping the near-term impacts of the technology. While expectations were set too high in the past, industry experts predict that 2024 will be the year when steady progress and tangible goals replace the boom-or-bust thinking prevalent in previous years.
Addressing the challenge of errors is crucial to advancing quantum computing. Errors in quantum computers, specifically in the quantum bits or qubits, can overwhelm calculations and hinder progress. The development of quantum algorithms and quantum error correction techniques is necessary to mitigate these errors and unlock the full potential of quantum computing. While historically experts have estimated that the goal of practical quantum computing is about 10 years away, recent advancements suggest that this timescale may be closer to 7 to 8 years.
In 2023, progress in quantum error correction dominated the field, with several landmark papers and announcements. Google released a code to correct errors, and quantum company Quera achieved a significant milestone by producing the largest number of error-free qubits. IBM’s new roadmap also emphasizes error correction as a core focus. With long-term optimism higher than ever, the quantum computing industry is poised to unlock a potential of $1.3 trillion by 2035 across multiple industries.
Governments worldwide are investing in testbeds, allowing experts to test and benchmark the components required to build a useful quantum computer in short-term, digestible chunks. The UK, in particular, has unveiled ambitious plans to create a ‘TeraQuop’ quantum computer capable of a trillion error-free operations by 2035. This leap in computing power aims to go beyond supercomputing capabilities and opens the door to a wide range of applications.
While the exact applications of a useful quantum computer are yet to be fully understood, experts predict that the possibilities will be vast and may even lead to several multidisciplinary Nobel Prize-winning discoveries. Harnessing the potential of quantum computing will require the development of better quantum algorithms and error correction techniques, ultimately leading to fewer qubits needed to perform quantum calculations. As progress and pace accelerate, 2024 is expected to be the year when conversations about quantum applications gain substance and tangible results start to emerge.
In conclusion, quantum computing moves closer to surpassing the hype in 2024, with significant investments in research, a focus on near-term applications, and advancements in error correction techniques. The journey towards practical quantum computing is well underway, and while the exact applications remain uncertain, the potential for groundbreaking discoveries and revolutionizing multiple industries is closer than ever before.
