ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads: a flat December
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads experienced a slight increase of 0.1% in December, following a significant drop of 8.9% over the previous four months. The original data revealed a 10.0% decrease, which can be attributed to the usual decline in recruiting activity during the holiday season. However, the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicate a more stable labor market, with job vacancies declining by only 0.7% in November. This suggests that while there is some easing in the labor market, there are no signs of a sharp deterioration. The number of vacancies per unemployed person reached a two-year low of 0.68, but it still remains double the pre-COVID level. Analysts predict only a modest increase in the unemployment rate for 2024.
Catherine Birch, Senior Economist at ANZ, commented on the December job ads data, stating, The marginal increase in ANZ-Indeed Job Ads is a positive development after the substantial drop in previous months. Although there was a seasonal decline due to the holiday break, the labor market appears to be stabilizing. The ABS figures support this trend, indicating that the overall situation is not signaling a significant deterioration in employment prospects. While vacancies per unemployed person have decreased, they are still at a level twice as high as before the pandemic.
Callam Pickering, Senior Economist at Indeed, highlighted the regional variations in job ad performance, saying, The decline in ANZ-Indeed Job Ads for 2023 was primarily driven by New South Wales and Victoria, which experienced a more significant drop compared to other states and territories. Declines were widespread across various occupations, with 70% of occupational categories recording lower job ads. Particularly impacted were food preparation & service, software development, and personal care, which offset gains in therapy and education job ads. However, it is worth noting that 80% of occupational categories still have job ads above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a reasonably resilient labor market.
As the labor market continues to fluctuate, it is essential to assess the overall health and stability of employment conditions. While job ads experienced a marginal improvement in December, there are regional disparities that need to be addressed. Although certain sectors are struggling, others are showing signs of recovery. Despite the challenges posed by the ongoing pandemic, Australia’s labor market remains relatively robust compared to the pre-COVID era.
It is crucial for policymakers and industry leaders to closely monitor these trends and work toward targeted interventions that support job creation and economic growth. By understanding the dynamics at play in different regions and industries, stakeholders can better allocate resources to areas experiencing the most significant declines in job ads.
In conclusion, while the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads data for December indicates a modest improvement, the labor market is still in the process of stabilizing. Significant regional variations and occupational disparities persist, underscoring the need for ongoing support and intervention. As the economy faces both headwinds and opportunities in the wake of the pandemic, a careful and nuanced approach is required to foster a resilient and inclusive labor market.
