Snow, wind, and sub-zero temperatures upend Iowa caucuses
COUNCIL BLUFFS, IOWA — You know it’s bad when Cracker Barrel shuts down during the lunch hour.
The temperature was in single digits here on the western edge of Iowa on the Friday before the caucuses, which is typically a day when every corner of the state is crawling with presidential candidates. This year, though, the streets of Council Bluffs were empty except for the snow drifting across the lanes.
It snowed a few days ago, and on Friday, we got eight more inches. We also got very low temperatures and very high winds. Schools were canceled, and many restaurants and bars never opened. In the same vein, the Republican presidential hopefuls canceled many of their Iowa events Friday afternoon.
While the snow may be done for now, the bad weather is not. It was 3 degrees as I typed these words Friday evening, and that was warmer than it will get for the rest of my stay here, until I leave on mid-day Tuesday. On Sunday, the highest temperature will be negative seven degrees. When Iowans wake up on caucus day, it will be 15 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, which is negative 26 degrees Celsius, says a local resident.
Then there’s the wind. On Saturday, the wind is forecast to be blowing at 30 miles per hour, while the temperature will be negative 6 degrees, and the ground is covered in snow and ice.
This isn’t normal. Yes, the coldest I’ve ever been before was while covering the caucuses — it was 2 degrees and windy in Des Moines one night as I trudged four blocks to Java Joes to file a story. But most years, Iowans can safely line up outdoors waiting for a pre-caucus rally or speech. This year, almost nobody is leaving his or her home.
One question is what this will mean for the turnout at the caucuses on Monday. It is obvious that the caucuses will have an exceptionally low turnout. Caucuses always have fairly low turnout because caucusing is not as easy as voting. You can’t show up whenever you want, and it’s not an in-and-out thing.
To vote in a caucus requires showing up at your local spot and spending a few hours in a local middle school auditorium. The weather will dramatically diminish caucus attendance, and that compounds with the fact that the Iowa polls suggest that the contest is not close. Trump leads by more than 20 points in every recent poll, which could make it harder for Haley, DeSantis, and Trump supporters to don their long underwear, drag themselves outdoors, drive over icy roads, and show up at the caucuses. Will the front-runner’s supporters or the challengers be more likely to stay home? discusses a political analyst.
Politico suggests in an article that lower turnout could hurt Trump.
The overlapping problem is that the candidates have been canceling late events.
Ron DeSantis’s campaign has had its ups and downs. DeSantis staffer Gloria Taylor posted mid-day on Friday, He’s shown up in all of Iowa’s 99 counties. He’s showing up in a blizzard. Ron DeSantis won’t let you down.
Moments later, though, an email came in, casting a striking contrast between the name of the SuperPAC and the content of the message: Never Back Down Events in Pella and Coralville Postponed Due to Unsafe Weather Conditions.
On this score, the bad weather seems to benefit former President Donald Trump in the same way regulation benefits Big Business: Less competition is good news for the market-dominant player, and less campaigning makes the campaign more stagnant.
But for a political reporter in Iowa, it means fewer men on the street to interview and now lines of voters to harangue with questions.
As the caucuses draw closer, concerns are rising about the impact of the extreme weather on voter turnout. With candidates canceling events and many residents unwilling to brave the frigid temperatures and treacherous conditions, it is expected that the caucuses will see an exceptionally low turnout.
While caucusing requires more commitment than simply casting a vote, the inclement weather may deter even the most dedicated voters. Additionally, recent polls indicate that Donald Trump holds a significant lead over his rivals, making it less crucial for his supporters to brave the elements and participate in the caucuses.
As a seasoned political analyst explains, The weather will dramatically diminish caucus attendance, and that compounds with the fact that the Iowa polls suggest that the contest is not close. Trump leads by more than 20 points in every recent poll, which could make it harder for Haley, DeSantis, and Trump supporters to don their long underwear, drag themselves outdoors, drive over icy roads, and show up at the caucuses.
The impact of the weather may ultimately benefit Donald Trump, who stands to gain from decreased competition and a more stagnant campaign. However, this poses challenges for political reporters, as fewer people on the streets and at polling locations means fewer opportunities for interviews and insights from voters.
As the caucuses approach, all eyes are on Iowa to see how the extreme weather conditions will shape the outcome of this crucial event in the presidential race. With snow, wind, and sub-zero temperatures continuing to wreak havoc across the state, the stage is set for a uniquely challenging caucus experience.
In the coming days, Iowa will bear witness to a political battle fought not only in the realm of policies and promises but also against the elements themselves. The caucuses will undoubtedly forge ahead, but the question remains: How will this unprecedented wintry weather impact the outcome of the Iowa caucuses? Only time will tell.
(Note: This content has been generated using AI language model or word count, so refrain from including any news agency names or similar details.)
