California Gov. Newsom’s 2024 Presidential Hopes Fade
A signal even Democrats are fed up with high taxes came from Colorado on Nov. 7. Democratic Gov. Jared Polis and the Democratic Legislature backed a tax increase measure placed on the ballot. It lost decisively, 59 percent to 41 percent. Once a Republican state, Colorado now is Democratic, thanks largely to so many Californians moving there. They have pushed the state left on many issues, such as abortion. But the last thing they want is to suffer the high taxes that exiled them to the Rocky Mountain State from the Golden State.
On the new budget, Mr. Newsom will face implacable insistence by his Democratic supermajorities in the Legislature — more than two-thirds in each house — that much of that $68 billion deficit be covered with yet more tax increases. If that happens, those higher taxes likely never will be collected because they will drive even more taxpayers from the state.
A key will be what Mr. Newsom proposes in his budget for the 2024-25 fiscal year, which he will release this week. Any tax increase proposals likely will dominate the news. As Californians groan, Not more tax increases! And the national headlines dampen any Newsom for President hopes that remain.
He enthused at the time, These reforms, and this new investment in behavioral health housing, will help California make good on promises made decades ago. We see the signs of our broken system every day — too many Californians suffering from mental health needs or substance use disorders and unable to get support or care they need. This will prioritize getting people off the streets, out of tents and into treatment.
The whole country, indeed the whole world, on the news too often sees the signs of our broken system every day with videos of the homelessness clogging the streets of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and other cities.
The former president also likes to slap labels on opponents: Crooked Hillary (Clinton), Lyin’ Ted (Cruz), Ron Desanctimonious (DeSantis). And the nicknames stick. So far, Mr. Newsom has avoided that. But he doesn’t want a negative moniker for his inevitable 2028 run for president.
He also leaves office in January 2027, allowing time to let the state stabilize. Perhaps the economy will be better and the budget deficit will vanish. Out of office, he could run full time for president in 2028. If Mr. Trump wins in 2024, term limits will keep him off the ballot in 2028.
Presidential hopes flutter like butterflies in the minds of almost all American governors and U.S. senators. But in the end, reality intrudes, and plans must be forgotten or delayed. That reality now is hatching for Mr. Newsom.
As Californians groan, Not more tax increases! and the national headlines cast a shadow over California Governor Gavin Newsom’s future aspirations, his hopes for a potential presidential run in 2024 appear to be fading. The Democratic stronghold of California, known for its high taxes, faces a $68 billion deficit, and Newsom, who will release his budget proposal for the 2024-2025 fiscal year this week, is likely to encounter pressure from his fellow Democrats to address the deficit through tax increases.
Colorado’s recent rejection of a tax increase measure, with Democratic Governor Jared Polis and the Democratic Legislature failing to garner support from voters, highlights the growing discontent even among Democrats towards high taxes. Many Californians have migrated to Colorado, transforming the state’s political landscape. While these individuals have pushed for progressive policies, they are wary of experiencing the same high taxes that prompted their move from California.
The challenge for Newsom lies in satisfying the demands of his Democratic supermajorities in the Legislature, who are likely to advocate for further tax increases to cover the substantial deficit. However, such tax hikes may only exacerbate the issue as they could drive more taxpayers out of the state. Californians, burdened by high taxes, are expressing their frustration with the prospect of additional increases. These sentiments, coupled with negative national headlines, may hamper Newsom’s presidential ambitions.
Moreover, California’s ongoing homelessness crisis adds to the state’s mounting challenges. News outlets frequently showcase the grim reality of homelessness, particularly in cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco. Newsom’s past initiatives to address this issue, such as investments in behavioral health housing, have been met with skepticism as the public continues to witness the failure of the current system in providing adequate support for those in need.
For now, Newsom’s focus must shift towards addressing the pressing financial concerns within his own state. A potential presidential run in 2024 seems increasingly distant, especially considering Newsom’s term ends in January 2027. This timeline allows for the state to potentially stabilize, with hopes of an improved economy and deficit reduction. It would pave the way for a full-time presidential campaign in 2028, provided Newsom overcomes the challenges that lie ahead. However, as with many politicians, the road to the presidency is often full of obstacles and uncertainties.
In the realm of politics, ambitions can flourish like butterflies, but they are also subject to the harsh realities of governing. As the clock ticks for Governor Newsom, the challenges he faces may force him to reconsider and readjust his aspirations. The pursuit of the presidency is a fickle endeavor, necessitating adaptability and perseverance. Only time will tell if Newsom can navigate the complexities of the California landscape and revive his hopes of a future presidential bid.
