The Nordic spot power prices experienced a significant surge after outages and lower temperatures impacted the region. The system-wide day-ahead power price for delivery on 4 January increased by 52 percent following unexpected curtailments at Sweden’s Forsmark 2 nuclear power plant and Finnish fossil-fired units. Additionally, temperatures below seasonal norms are expected to drive up power demand in the coming days.
On 4 January, the Nordic system day-ahead spot index cleared at €94.25/MWh, up from €61.68/MWh the previous day. Hourly prices during specific periods spiked as high as €149.03/MWh, compared to €84.19/MWh on 3 January. The lowest prices were recorded during the early hours and ranged between €56.19-73.71/MWh.
Among the Nordic countries, Finland witnessed the highest increase in prices, reaching €228.12/MWh, up from €98.97/MWh. This surge was primarily due to the unplanned curtailment of the 1GW Estlink 1 interconnector between Finland and Estonia, with anticipated repair works lasting two days. As a result, Finland has become a net importer of Estonian power this month, in contrast to the net exports observed in December 2023. Fortum’s 565MW Meri-Pori coal-fired plant and the 120MW Seinajoki also experienced unplanned outages but are expected to resume operation on 4 January.
In Sweden, the average day-ahead index rose by approximately 49 percent to €88.30/MWh. Swedish state-owned utility Vattenfall partially disconnected the 1.1GW unit 2 at the Forsmark nuclear plant due to turbine issues, resulting in a capacity reduction of around 630MW until 24 January.
Norwegian day-ahead electricity prices also saw a significant increase, reaching around €82.03/MWh, up by 37 percent from the previous day. This surge can be attributed, in part, to elevated power prices in neighboring countries. Moreover, Oslo is anticipating a drop in temperatures to minus 10.9°C, compared to the seasonal average of minus 2.2°C. This weather change is likely to drive higher power demand. Another contributing factor is the reduction in domestic onshore wind capacity by 163MW due to unplanned outages at the Songkjolen and Engerfjellet onshore wind farms. These facilities are not expected to resume operation until at least 16 January.
Looking ahead, the tightness in the power system could persist throughout the week and into the following week due to ongoing works at the Forsmark nuclear plant. Finland’s transmission system operator, Fingrid, also predicts that power demand will remain high and may even increase further to around 15GW towards the end of the week. This projected demand exceeds the peak consumption estimate of 14.3GW from the TSO’s winter assessment in September 2023.
In conclusion, outages at power plants and the anticipated drop in temperatures have led to a surge in Nordic spot power prices. This situation has prompted concerns about potential shortages and heightened demand in the coming days. As the region faces these challenges, industry participants are closely monitoring the situation, with repair works and weather conditions expected to influence power prices and consumption levels.
