Amid Rising Tensions, US Considers Using South Caucasus as Potential Front Against Russia
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent statement about Russia leaving the South Caucasus has prompted a strong response from the Kremlin. While Pashinyan claimed that Moscow’s peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh had failed, Russia maintains that it is an integral part of the region and cannot simply leave. These developments have brought to light the United States’ potential plans to use the South Caucasus as a strategic springboard for opening a second front against Russia, according to Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin.
Galuzin expressed concerns about Washington’s long-standing intentions towards the South Caucasus, particularly Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. He argued that such plans contradict the genuine interests of the people in the region. The United States has been intensifying its pressure on Russia and its allies in response to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a lightning offensive and gained control over Nagorno-Karabakh, causing a mass exodus of the region’s Armenian population to neighboring Armenia. Over 100,000 individuals fled, leaving only a fraction of the original population remaining. Consequently, the Nagorno-Karabakh authorities declared that the unrecognized state would cease to exist in early 2024.
During the recent escalation of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh, senior US officials swiftly arrived in Armenia to exhibit their support for the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The US Agency for International Development (USAID) chief, Samantha Power, and Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasian Affairs, Yuri Kim, were among those who visited Armenia. Meanwhile, the Armenian Defense Ministry announced joint military exercises with the US named Eagle Partner 2023, focusing on peacekeeping missions and the stabilization of conflicting parties. Additionally, Armenia expressed its willingness to continue cooperation with NATO under the Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP).
The Kremlin responded to these developments by expressing concern over the joint US-Armenian military drills, particularly given the prevailing circumstances. Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, emphasized that Russia’s integral role in the region cannot be disregarded.
Earlier this year, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova noted Armenia’s evident inclination to reorient its foreign policy. Zakharova pointed out that such a shift seemed to be influenced by Western powers seeking to oust Russia from the South Caucasus. She criticized Armenia’s attempt to negotiate a peace treaty in Washington or Brussels, arguing that neither the US nor the EU could be considered unbiased mediators.
Prime Minister Pashinyan revealed that Armenia had negotiated the basic principles of a future peace agreement with Azerbaijan. However, the confirmation of Azerbaijan’s commitment to these principles remains pending.
As tensions rise in the South Caucasus, the United States’ potential involvement in the region as a strategic front against Russia continues to be a topic of concern. The conflicting interests of major global powers are exacerbating the situation, leaving the region caught in the crossfire. The future of the South Caucasus hangs in the balance as geopolitical maneuvers shape its destiny.
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