Scott Ritter: US ‘Sustainability’ in Jeopardy as World Turns Against Hegemony
As 2023 draws to a close, global attention remains fixed on the Israel-Palestinian crisis and the Ukrainian conflict. These ongoing conflicts have raised questions about what lies ahead in 2024 for the international community. In a recent interview with former US Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter, Sputnik’s Dimitri Simes, Jr. delved into the outcomes of the past year and discussed possible scenarios for the year to come.
When it comes to the Ukrainian conflict, Ritter believes that the Ukrainian military will continue to face strategic defeat in 2024. According to him, Ukraine is running low on manpower, ammunition, and arms, making it unlikely for them to sustain the conflict for much longer. Ritter emphasizes that the duration of the conflict will depend on Moscow’s operational tempo and whether Russia’s political and military objectives are achieved. Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine is not a blitzkrieg, as Ritter clarifies; it is designed to demilitarize and de-Nazify the country. The conflict will only end when Russian leadership’s goals are accomplished.
Ritter dismisses the claims made by US President Joe Biden and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that Russia would now turn its attention to NATO member states after winning the Ukrainian conflict. He sees this rhetoric as fear-mongering, aimed at justifying increased military spending. Once Russia’s objectives are realized in Ukraine, Ritter believes that they will focus on strengthening their military and fortifying their borders against threats from the US and NATO allies.
Moving on to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Ritter argues that Israel is facing a strategic defeat against Hamas, an Islamist Palestinian group supported by Iran. Ritter suggests that if elections were held in Gaza and the West Bank today, Hamas would win by a large margin, potentially leading to the formation of a Palestinian state. Hamas has garnered support from Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, forcing Israel into a multi-front war. Despite Israel’s threats to Hezbollah, Ritter believes that Israel cannot defeat the Lebanese Shiite group. Similarly, Israel is unable to halt the increasing influence of the Houthi resistance in the Red Sea. Ritter also highlights the possibility of the US-led coalition, created to safeguard the Red Sea passage, becoming entangled with the Houthis and Iranians if they decide to close the Bab al-Mandeb and Hormuz straits. In such a scenario, US coalition warships could easily become targets for Houthi and Iranian missiles and drones.
Contrary to expectations, Ritter does not envision the Israeli-Palestinian conflict spiraling out of control in 2024. He believes that it will conclude early in the year. Ritter points out that a rift is already emerging between Tel Aviv and Washington, and international opposition to what is perceived as the genocide of the Palestinian people is increasing.
Looking ahead, Ritter highlights the potential for a US-China conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. The outcome of the upcoming general elections in Taiwan in January 2024 could be a crucial factor. If the pro-US ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is unseated by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), a conflict between China and the US may ensue. While the KMT’s vice presidential candidate has stated that they would not discuss unification with China if elected, they are advocating for dialogue and restoring ties with the People’s Republic. On the other hand, the US-backed DPP has taken a confrontational approach toward Beijing, with increased arms sales to Taiwan. Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping has warned the US against meddling in China’s affairs and reiterated China’s intention to reunite with Taiwan. Ritter emphasizes that if the DPP wins, a conflict could erupt between China and the US, leading to severe global economic consequences and a possible recession.
Ritter also raises concerns about the US’s ability to wage a multi-front war with countries like China or Russia. He argues that the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict reveals the US’s overestimation of its technological superiority. Ritter characterizes the conflict as a slow-paced war of attrition, where numbers matter. He praises the Russian military’s resilience and agility in the face of sustained combat, highlighting their ability to quickly replace what has been lost. In contrast, the US lacks the capability for a war of attrition and struggles with rapidly replenishing ammunition and weapon stockpiles. Ritter points to a shortfall in military recruitment and the limitations of the US draft system. He also highlights challenges faced by the US defense industry due to outsourcing of production and expertise. As a result, the US cannot promptly enhance its artillery capacity, even after providing Ukraine with ammunition. Ritter suggests that the US is becoming a prisoner of the military procurement system focused on profit rather than national security.
In conclusion, Ritter contends that the US is ill-equipped to maintain its global hegemony and engage in high-intensity conflicts on multiple fronts. He asserts that the world is turning against the US’s imperial ambitions and striving for a multipolar environment that treats all countries equally and with respect.
As 2024 approaches, the international community awaits answers to the pressing questions raised by these ongoing conflicts. The outcomes in Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, and the Indo-Pacific region will significantly shape the geopolitical landscape and determine the trajectory of global events in the years to come.
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