Glasgow, United Kingdom – British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing mounting pressure as rebel MPs within his own party threaten to derail his political career. Sunak’s latest plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, ahead of a crucial House of Commons vote, has sparked controversy and opposition from both within and outside his party.
The proposed policy seeks to discourage people from crossing the English Channel to Britain in small boats by allowing for the resettlement of refugees and migrants in the African nation. However, the UK Supreme Court recently rejected the original legislation, deeming Rwanda an unsafe country for asylum seekers.
In response, Sunak introduced the Safety of Rwanda Bill in an effort to prevent courts from challenging British deportations to Rwanda. Despite concerns that the policy contradicts international law, the prime minister has denied that the upcoming Commons session will determine the fate of his premiership.
The growing discontent within Sunak’s party is evident, with right-wing politicians expressing doubts about the effectiveness and legality of the proposed policy. Former British immigration minister Robert Jenrick even resigned, criticizing Sunak’s handling of the legislation.
Political observers draw parallels between Sunak’s predicament and former Prime Minister Theresa May’s failure to deliver on Britain’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union. May ultimately stepped down in 2019 after struggling to negotiate a withdrawal agreement that satisfied all sides of her party.
However, unlike May, Sunak does not have the luxury of a clear successor waiting in the wings. This poses a significant challenge for both him and the Conservative Party, which currently lags about 20 points behind the opposition Labour Party in opinion polls.
Opinion polls indicate that Sunak’s political future hangs in the balance, with the next general election scheduled for no later than January 28, 2025. As the first British prime minister of Asian descent, Sunak assumed office after the resignation of Liz Truss in October 2022.
Despite his previous role as the chancellor of the exchequer under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Sunak has been unable to reverse the Conservatives’ dwindling popularity. His anti-immigration stance, particularly concerning the issue of stop the boats, aims to win back right-wing voters who have shifted their support to the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer.
However, political analysts argue that the number of right-wing voters solely focused on the small boats issue is not substantial enough to secure Sunak’s re-election. Moreover, Sunak’s determination to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda is unlikely to resonate with more immigration-friendly voters in the UK.
Public opinion reflects these concerns, with many viewing the policy as cruel and impractical. The UK’s refusal to deal with refugee and asylum claims within its own borders also raises questions about its commitment to human rights.
Despite the lack of global outcry, experts warn that the UK’s approach may influence other Western states to adopt similar offshoring strategies. Denmark and Austria are reportedly in negotiations with Rwanda to establish their migration deals.
Tuesday’s vote will determine whether Sunak will retain his political authority and continue his pursuit of the controversial legislation. Beyond the immediate outcome, however, analysts question the long-term benefits and potential negative impact on Sunak’s chances in the next general election.
Voters remain primarily concerned about the cost of living and the state of the National Health Service, suggesting that the divisive nature of the proposed policy may further disillusion them. Divided parties historically struggle to win elections, and Sunak’s Conservatives face an uphill battle in regaining public trust.
As the political landscape continues to shift, Sunak’s fate may be decided by the outcome of Tuesday’s vote and his ability to navigate the challenges ahead.
