The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) performed well in the Marwar, Mewar, eastern Rajasthan, and Hadoti regions, while its performance was below expectations in Shekhawati and north Rajasthan, according to the results of the recent elections. In Marwar, Shekhawati, and eastern Rajasthan, the BJP’s performance has been sporadic, while it has traditionally been strong in Hadoti, Mewar, Ajmer, and Bikaner.
The BJP’s vote share increased to 41.9% from 38.77% in 2018, while the Congress’ vote share marginally rose to 39.3% from 39.30%. Party leaders from both BJP and Congress attributed the underperformance in certain areas to the wrong selection of candidates and failure to secure the caste equation.
During the previous elections, Congress swept eastern Rajasthan with the support of the Meena and Gurjar communities. However, the Gurjars, who had hoped for community leader Sachin Pilot to become Chief Minister, were upset when Ashok Gehlot was chosen instead. As a result, the Gurjar vote shifted towards BJP, leading to an improvement in the BJP’s tally in the region from one seat in 2018 to 19 in the current elections.
In Jaipur, the BJP also increased its seat count from six in 2018 to 12 this time. The party also achieved a clean sweep in Bikaner district, winning all seven seats. On the other hand, the Congress secured a significant share of the Jat vote, performing well in Hanumangarh, Ganganagar districts, and the Shekhawati belt.
In the Marwar region, the BJP’s success can be attributed to anti-incumbency sentiments against the sitting MLAs and ministers. Similarly, the BJP retained its stronghold in the Hadoti region, comprising Kota, Bundi, Jhalawar, and Baran districts. While the Congress performed well in Bundi, winning all four seats, the BJP fared better in other areas.
The BJP also maintained its dominance in the Mewar belt, winning 18 seats compared to Congress’ seven. Additionally, the Bharatiya Adivasi Party secured three seats. In 2018, the BJP had won just one seat in the region, while the Congress won ten.
Political analysts noted that the BJP’s success was not limited to specific communities, as they secured votes from Brahmins, Rajputs, Banias, as well as others. The Gurjar vote was divided between the BJP and Congress-backed candidates, while Jat votes were based on candidate preferences. The BJP managed to secure a portion of Meena and SC votes, thanks to the influence of BJP leader Kirori Meena.
Despite these successes, the Congress failed to sway the Mali vote away from the BJP, which they had anticipated. Moving forward, it will be important for the Congress to reassess their candidate selection strategies and regain their support base.
Both parties acknowledged that anti-incumbency played a role in the election results, with 31 MLAs and 17 ministers from the Congress losing their seats. Congress spokesperson Swarnim Chaturvedi emphasized the need for fresh faces on many seats.
Overall, the BJP’s improved performance in Marwar and Jaipur, coupled with their retention of influence in the Mewar belt, reaffirms their dominance in these regions. The Congress, despite their marginal increase in vote share, will need to address their shortcomings and strategize effectively to regain lost ground in future elections.
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