Wastewater Testing Outperforms Clinical Data in Predicting COVID Hospitalizations, US

Testing wastewater for COVID-19 provides a better forecast of new COVID hospital admissions than clinical data, according to a new study led by Dustin Hill, an environmental data scientist and epidemiologist at Syracuse University. The study found that wastewater surveillance improves prediction models for hospitalizations by 11% over models that use case data at the county level and by 15% for regional hospitalization estimates. This new method of forecasting helps public health partners prepare for surges in hospitalizations before they happen, allowing for better allocation of resources. The researchers combined wastewater surveillance data with clinical case and comorbidity data to predict future hospital admissions. The accuracy of the predictions was high, with an average difference of 0.013 new hospitalizations per 100,000 population. The study was conducted using data from the New York State Wastewater Surveillance Network, which is testing for COVID in at least one wastewater treatment plant in each of the state’s 62 counties. The researchers believe that this wastewater-based prediction method could also be applied to other infectious diseases in the future.