Potential Successors Emerge in Russian Presidential Election as Putin’s Influence Wanes
As the March presidential election in Russia approaches, the question of who will succeed Vladimir Putin is gaining traction. Gone are the days when Putin engaged in public stunts to showcase his vitality, such as hugging a polar bear or riding a horse barechested in the mountains. The war in Ukraine has further eroded his strongman image. However, despite the challenges, Putin is still expected to seek another term, thanks to recent changes in the constitution that allow him to run for two additional six-year terms.
In Russia’s hermetic political system, there are no primary elections for voters to select candidates. Instead, political parties themselves choose contenders and present them to the electorate. Therefore, if Putin were not to run, it is highly likely that a candidate would emerge from within the current power structure. The United Russia party, known for its loyalty to Putin, could put forth a candidate, though the procedure for selecting one remains uncertain due to Putin’s decision to run as an independent candidate in 2018.
One potential successor is Dmitry Medvedev, who served as a Putin surrogate when he became president in 2008 due to term limits. However, Medvedev was always regarded as secondary to Putin, making him a less likely choice. Another contender is Alexei Dyumin, who has a close relationship with Putin and is currently serving as the governor of the Tula region. While he may lack public visibility, his role in events such as the annexation of Crimea in 2014 adds to his appeal.
Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow since 2010, could also be a strong candidate based on his remarkable transformation of the Russian capital. With tangible improvements in recreation areas, sports facilities, and public transportation, Sobyanin’s portfolio speaks for itself. However, his conservative stance on LGBTQ+ rights may deter some voters.
Mikhail Mishustin, the current prime minister, is a quiet technocrat who has received high approval ratings for his competent leadership. While he may lack ambition, Mishustin could find himself assuming the role of acting president in the event of Putin’s inability to fulfill his duties before the election. Lastly, there is Nikolai Patrushev, the head of Russia’s national security council, who shares Putin’s hawkish views and hostility towards the West, making him a potential candidate.
It remains to be seen how the presidential election in Russia will unfold. Nonetheless, the emergence of these potential successors signals a shift in the country’s political landscape. As the contenders from various backgrounds and with different strengths vie for the presidency, they must navigate a complex geopolitical environment and win the support of the Russian electorate. Ultimately, it is their ability to lead and address the nation’s challenges that will determine who succeeds Putin.
