Maldives’ New Government Faces Delicate Balancing Act with India in Foreign Policy Shift
The Maldives’ newly elected President, Mohamed Muizzu, now faces the challenge of recalibrating the country’s relationship with India while addressing concerns from parts of the Maldivian public regarding domination by their large neighbor. Muizzu has expressed his intention to adopt a pro-Maldives foreign policy strategy, which includes the possibility of sending a small contingent of Indian military personnel home. However, implementing these plans may prove to be more complicated than anticipated due to the significant scope of India’s maritime security assistance to the Maldives.
As an island state with a population of only 500,000, the Maldives relies heavily on its maritime jurisdiction, encompassing archipelagic waters and an exclusive economic zone of over 900,000 square kilometers, for its prosperity. However, effectively governing this vast maritime space poses a challenge for the Maldivian government, which struggles to provide essential services to isolated communities and combat issues like illegal fishing and drug trafficking.
Furthermore, climate change exacerbates these challenges, as rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and the salinification of groundwater place additional stresses on local communities. The potential consequences of large-scale migration from inhabited islands to the capital city in response to these climate threats could be disastrous.
Historically, India has been the Maldives’ primary security partner, offering various forms of assistance to develop the country’s maritime security capabilities. However, concerns about maintaining national identity and autonomy persist among the Maldivian public, particularly regarding the presence of a small contingent of 75 Indian navy and coast guard personnel stationed at strategic locations in Maldives. These personnel provide crucial support for aerial surveillance, medevac services, and monitoring the exclusive economic zone.
The scenario presents a dilemma for the incoming administration, as the premature withdrawal of Indian pilots and maintenance personnel would render the aircraft inoperable. Thus, the government must find a solution that safeguards the country’s aerial surveillance and medevac capabilities while also aligning with the broader objective of enhancing Maldives’ long-term maritime security capabilities. One potential option could involve a phased replacement of Indian personnel with Maldives National Defense Force (MNDF) staff, provided the training of MNDF personnel can be expedited.
Beyond addressing immediate concerns, the new administration could work towards reducing the Maldives’ reliance on India by strengthening existing engagements with other like-minded countries, such as the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Australia. By fostering greater public engagement with these nations, the Maldives can reduce perceptions of Indian dominance in security assistance.
India has been instrumental in supporting the development of Maldives’ maritime security capabilities. It has gifted vessels, aircraft, and coastal radar systems to the MNDF, in addition to providing assistance for infrastructure projects and engaging in joint exercises for capacity-building. India’s contributions have extended to areas like hydrographic surveying and assistance in updating charts that still rely on outdated versions dating back to the 19th century.
While the incoming government works to recalibrate the security relationship with India to ensure transparency and respect for Maldives’ interests, it must also safeguard the country’s broader interests. India plays a crucial role in regional security and has been a primary source of assistance for the Maldives’ maritime security needs. Therefore, the new administration must tread carefully, maintaining the benefits of cooperation with India while further enhancing collaboration with other key players in the Indo-Pacific region.
To achieve this, the government must continue engaging in regional security dialogues, such as the Colombo Security Conclave and the Indian Ocean Rim Association. These platforms provide opportunities to address shared concerns and strengthen cooperation in maintaining peace and stability in the Indian Ocean.
The pro-Maldives policy framework adopted by the government enables the country to engage peacefully with all development partners, including renewing economic ties with China. Finding a balance between economic and development partnerships without undermining security cooperation with India is crucial. Similar challenges exist for other countries in the region, such as Australia, which maintains economic ties with China while relying on security partnerships with countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and India.
In conclusion, the new Maldivian government faces the delicate task of recalibrating the country’s relationship with India while addressing public concerns and safeguarding national interests. Striking a balance between the interests of various stakeholders and fostering partnerships with multiple countries will be crucial to effectively navigate the evolving security dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region.
