North Carolina is emerging as a critical battleground for Democrats in the 2024 presidential race. The swing state has seen narrow Republican victories in the past three presidential elections, but its changing demographics and increasing urban populations are making it a competitive and trending purple state.
North Carolina-based Democrat strategist Douglas Wilson notes that the state has historically had close elections, with candidates winning by small margins. Former President Barack Obama managed to win North Carolina in 2008, but Republicans have carried the state in the subsequent three presidential contests.
However, Wilson expects more attention from Democratic campaigns earlier in the 2024 cycle. He emphasizes the importance of starting early and having a strong ground game in North Carolina. Wilson points to Obama’s successful campaign infrastructure in 2008, which helped him secure the Democrat nomination.
Republican strategist Doug Heye acknowledges that Republicans can no longer take North Carolina for granted, especially with the growing urban areas like Charlotte and Raleigh. He highlights the closeness of recent elections and warns against underestimating the state’s competitiveness.
Heye also mentions the potential hurdles for the GOP in 2024, including former President Donald Trump’s likely nomination and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s gubernatorial campaign. He suggests that courting suburban women in Raleigh, a crucial demographic for Democratic wins in recent years, will be essential for both parties.
On the Democrat side, there is optimism about the growing Latino population in North Carolina. Democrat candidate Gabe Esparza believes that a few extra thousand votes from the Latino community could contribute to the party’s success. Additionally, Cynthia Wallace, co-founder of the nonprofit New Rural Project, highlights the importance of considering the state’s rural areas, as North Carolina is one of the most rural states in the country.
Both Republicans and Democrats are expected to focus on economic messaging that resonates with working families in North Carolina. Republicans, like Donald Trump and Mark Robinson, believe they are better suited to be seen as fighters for working families compared to Joe Biden and likely Democrat nominee Josh Stein.
As the 2024 presidential race approaches, North Carolina is poised to be a closely contested state. Both parties recognize the need to invest early, build strong campaign infrastructures, and appeal to key demographics. With the state’s political landscape evolving and becoming more competitive, it is crucial for candidates to make efforts to secure victory in North Carolina.
