OPEC Oil Output Rises, Iranian Production Hits 2018 High, Quota-Bound Members Miss Targets
OPEC oil output witnessed a second consecutive monthly rise in September, according to a recent Reuters survey. This increase was led by Nigeria and Iran, despite ongoing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC+ alliance. In September, OPEC pumped 27.73 million barrels per day (bpd), which marked a growth of 120,000 bpd from August.
Nigeria, which has been dealing with crude theft and insecurity in its oil-producing region, experienced a significant boost in exports without any major disruptions. As per shipping data and sources, the country saw a rise in output by 110,000 bpd. Nigeria is targeting further recovery by next year.
Iran, on the other hand, has been actively boosting supply despite U.S. sanctions. Surveys and separate figures from OPEC indicate that Iranian output reached 3.15 million bpd, the highest level since 2018 when Washington re-imposed sanctions. Analysts believe that Iran’s success in evading U.S. sanctions and the discretion shown by Washington in enforcing them may be responsible for the surge in Iranian exports.
Among the 10 OPEC members that are subject to OPEC+ supply cut agreements, output rose by 80,000 bpd. While Saudi Arabia and other Gulf members adhered strongly to the cutbacks and voluntary reductions, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates slightly increased their output. Angola, however, experienced the largest decline in supply—50,000 bpd—due to a drop in exports.
Despite the rise in OPEC oil output, it is still falling short of the targeted amount by approximately 700,000 bpd. This is mainly because Nigeria and Angola lack the capacity to pump as much as their agreed levels.
The September survey aims to track supply to the market and is based on shipping data, flows data from sources like Refinitiv Eikon, information from companies tracking flows (such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler), and data from sources at oil companies, OPEC, and consultants.
This rise in OPEC oil output may impact global oil prices and market dynamics. It remains to be seen how member countries navigate the challenges of increasing production while simultaneously adhering to supply cut agreements.
