Slovakia’s Tight Election Race: Pro-West Liberal vs. Pro-Russia Populist
Bratislava, Slovakia – Early parliamentary elections in Slovakia have resulted in a close race between a liberal, pro-West newcomer and a populist former prime minister who campaigned on a pro-Russia and anti-American message. Exit polls conducted by Focus and Median SK agencies suggest a slight advantage for the Progressive Slovakia party, projected to capture between 20% and 23.5% of the vote. Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Robert Fico and his leftist Smer party are expected to secure between 19% and 22% of the vote. Official results are anticipated to be announced on Sunday.
The outcome of this election is crucial in determining Slovakia’s stance towards neighboring Ukraine and its conflict with Russia. If Fico were to win, it could strain the fragile unity within the European Union and NATO. Fico, aged 59, pledged to withdraw Slovakia’s military support for Ukraine if he were to regain power. Conversely, Michal Simecka, the leader of the Progressive Slovakia party, campaigned on a promise to continue Slovakia’s support for Ukraine.
Given the likelihood of no party winning a majority, the formation of a coalition government will be necessary. Exit polls indicate a potential third-place finish for the left-wing Hlas party, led by Peter Pellegrini, Fico’s former deputy. Pellegrini split from Smer after the party lost the previous election in 2020. However, a reunion with Fico could bolster his chances of forming a government.
Fico’s campaign was marked by his opposition to EU sanctions on Russia, skepticism regarding Ukraine’s ability to combat Russian invasion, and his desire to impede Ukraine’s accession to NATO. Instead of sending arms to Ukraine, Fico proposed that the EU and the U.S. employ their influence to facilitate a compromise peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. He echoed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unsupported claim that Ukraine is governed by Nazis. Fico also rallied against immigration and LGBTQ+ rights, even threatening to dismiss investigators involved in combating corruption and serious crimes.
The Progressive Slovakia party, founded in 2017, views Slovakia’s future as closely tied to its membership in the EU and NATO. The party also champions LGBTQ+ rights, an uncommon stance among major parties in this predominantly conservative Roman Catholic country. Known for its popularity among young voters, the party achieved success in the 2019 European Parliament election in Slovakia, though narrowly missed winning seats in the national parliament in 2020.
According to the exit polls, approximately seven or eight political groups and parties are projected to surpass the 5% threshold required for representation in the 150-seat National Council. Pellegrini emphasized the importance of forming a coalition with parties that share priorities for Slovakia and can ensure stability.
One of the groups that may secure representation is the far-right Republic party, led by former members of the openly neo-Nazi People’s Party Our Slovakia. The Republic party advocates for Slovakia’s withdrawal from the EU and NATO, and some of its members have been known to use Nazi salutes.
The election results will have significant implications for Slovakia’s future direction and its relationships with both Russia and Western alliances. As the official results are awaited, political leaders and citizens alike are keenly aware that every single vote matters.
