Trump’s Uncertainty on Taiwan Invasion Raises Concerns Amidst China’s Aggression: The Battle for America’s Alliance Structure and Dollar Dominance
Former US President Donald Trump has left the world guessing about his stance on providing military support to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. During an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press, Trump neither confirmed nor denied the possibility of sending American troops to Taiwan. This ambiguity, while serving to keep the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the dark, raises concerns about the future of US policy towards Taiwan.
Contrasting with Trump’s non-commitment, current President Joe Biden initially expressed his willingness to intervene militarily if China were to make a move on Taiwan. However, the White House later clarified that there is no change in the existing US policy. In essence, Biden has largely maintained the Trump administration’s position on China, including export controls and the deployment of more US troops in the Philippines.
One of Biden’s notable achievements in foreign policy has been fostering stronger ties between Japan and South Korea, traditional rivals in East Asia. Both countries face threats from China and North Korea, making their cooperation crucial in maintaining stability in the region. Nevertheless, the Biden administration’s overall approach towards China indicates a broad consensus in US politics regarding the threat posed by Beijing.
China continues to menace Taiwan, as evidenced by Taiwan’s defense ministry reporting 103 Chinese military aircraft spotted in the region in the preceding 24 hours. While an invasion or blockade of Taiwan would not be an easy task for China, it remains a major concern for the island democracy. With limited access points and the challenge of securing crucial port and airport facilities, China’s advantage lies in its numerical superiority and potential to escalate the conflict.
The significance of Taiwan in the geopolitical landscape stems from its position in the first island chain, a network of US-allied islands that prevents China’s control over the Western Pacific. Losing control over Taiwan would be disastrous for the United States, impacting its alliance structure in Asia and potentially even challenging the status of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The US Navy’s role in guaranteeing sea lane security plays a crucial role in maintaining the dollar’s dominance, making the Taiwan issue of paramount importance.
The stakes are high for both China and the US, with China recognizing a narrow window of opportunity to make a move before countries like Japan, India, and Taiwan strengthen their militaries further. Additionally, the outcome of the US presidential election and the Taiwanese presidential election in January are likely factors that China considers before taking any actions.
The situation surrounding Taiwan is existential for the Chinese Communist Party and its leader, Xi Jinping. Having brought the Chinese people to the brink of a potential conflict over Taiwan, Xi has limited room to back down. Despite the potential economic fallout, China’s preparations for war, demonstrated by stockpiling resources, expanding its military, and increasing military recruitment, suggest that the possibility of armed confrontation cannot be ignored.
The outcome of the US election, as well as the attitudes of the Taiwanese people, will shape the response to China’s intentions towards Taiwan. While Trump maintains strategic ambiguity, Biden’s signals have been somewhat mixed. Ultimately, the fate of Taiwan is not only America’s but a battle for the West as a whole. It is crucial that US politicians clearly articulate the stakes involved in order to inform and engage the American people.
