Extreme Heat Threatens Corn Yields as Temperatures Soar
The scorching temperatures sweeping across the U.S. grain belt are posing a significant threat to corn yields. As triple-digit temperatures persist, the weight of corn kernels is being affected, even though ear size has already been established. The hot days and warm nights are preventing the corn from recovering adequately, leading to a loss in weight.
The impact of temperature on corn production has been a topic of debate, with some suggesting it would have limited effects at this stage. However, farmers are witnessing firsthand the detrimental consequences of extreme heat on their crops. A mere 5-milligram decrease in kernel weight per kernel can result in a loss of up to 50 bushels per acre. Farmers in Northwest Iowa, like myself, have experienced decreasing yields due to the combination of drought and heat.
The parched conditions in our region have forced crops to rely heavily on subsoil moisture, making them more susceptible to heat damage. August has historically been a dry month, hastening the maturation process and negatively impacting yields. Now, farmers with lighter soil or low soil moisture are witnessing similar challenges. Longer growing seasons have typically allowed the crop to accumulate more weight in the kernels, but this year’s heat is cutting short the growth cycle.
While the Pro Farmer crop tour provides valuable insights into the state of the crops at a specific moment, the rapidly changing weather conditions are quickly rendering the data outdated. The upcoming USDA crop progress update is eagerly awaited to assess the further deterioration of crop conditions.
Forecasts indicate a continuation of the dry trend with warmer temperatures persisting into mid-September. This potential extended dry spell could push up the soybean market as well. However, crop performance is expected to be highly variable, as confirmed by crop tours in states like Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska that often receive less publicity.
Although it is too early to determine the final yield numbers, it is likely that they won’t differ significantly from last season. The real question is how the USDA will offset the lower production figures. Trimming off another 200 million bushels from the projected 2.2 billion bushel carryover can only have limited impact.
Some private analysts have raised concerns about potential acreage adjustments based on FSA data for Iowa and Illinois. Soybeans remain a promising crop, but attention is now turning to Brazil’s upcoming planting window, where an increase in acres is anticipated.
As the heat persists and corn yields hang in the balance, farmers are closely monitoring the situation. The extreme weather conditions highlight the need for resilient farming practices and effective risk management strategies. Ultimately, the impact of the heat on corn yields serves as a reminder of the challenges faced by agricultural communities, who must navigate climate uncertainties to ensure food security.
